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我們看到極端天氣導(dǎo)致北美天然氣和電力市場（例如德克薩斯州）出現(xiàn)多次復(fù)合故障，那里的供應(yīng)、需求和價(jià)格平衡受到?jīng)_擊，管道和液化天然氣出口的減少在全球產(chǎn)生了連鎖反應(yīng)。 伴隨天氣事件，全球能源政策因氣候變化問題而發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變，導(dǎo)致全球天然氣和液化天然氣市場充滿不確定性。
為了應(yīng)對這些變化，路孚特和 RBAC 將一套全新的天氣情景以及天然氣和液化天然氣基建假設(shè)、政策、成本和約束方面的大量變化納入了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®全球天然氣預(yù)測分析系統(tǒng)™，針對全球天然氣市場進(jìn)行了全面和客觀的模擬分析。 本報(bào)告詳細(xì)介紹了美國、歐洲和亞洲市場不斷變化的動態(tài)，幫助您為未來的任何動蕩天氣做好準(zhǔn)備并渡過難關(guān)。
簡介：
2020年秋季，RBAC和路孚特初次合作開發(fā)了多個(gè)場景，圍繞即將到來的2020/2021年冬季的天氣和其他天然氣市場動態(tài)。 此次合作發(fā)表的天然氣前景引起了業(yè)界的極大關(guān)注，但是2020/2021年的實(shí)際冬季的影響要比預(yù)測的場景大得多。 基于北極寒流模擬的結(jié)果更嚴(yán)重，破壞力更大。 儲氣量被拉低到危險(xiǎn)的低水平，全球天然氣市場在2021年迅速升溫。隨著2021/2022年冬季的臨近，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC發(fā)布2021年全球短期天然氣和液化天然氣市場展望，為北半球即將到來的取暖季節(jié)提供有價(jià)值的參考。
RBAC 團(tuán)隊(duì)利用 G2M2® 開發(fā)了總計(jì)36 個(gè)月的預(yù)測，利用市場基本面因素和天氣敏感性探索區(qū)域市場之間的互連。該團(tuán)隊(duì)利用19種場景來評估天氣對全球天然氣平衡的影響，以及北美、歐洲和亞洲樞紐的價(jià)格。
此文希望分享今年展望的重要內(nèi)容，并將今年與去年的預(yù)測進(jìn)行客觀的比較和分析，借以提高我們對市場模擬的理解。
亨利港（Henry Hub）價(jià)格對液化天然氣出口的影響
當(dāng)我們回顧2020-2021年Refinitiv-RBAC全球短期天然氣和液化天然氣市場展望（于2020年11月發(fā)表）時(shí)，其中重要的見解包括以下幾個(gè)方面：
• 冬季需求可能是亨利港 2020 年第 4 季度和 2021 年第 1 季度價(jià)格的主要驅(qū)動因素之一。美國冬季需求強(qiáng)勁，可能會使天然氣留在國內(nèi)，而不是作為液化天然氣運(yùn)往海外。
• 在后 COVID 世界中，生產(chǎn)商將被迫在管理短周期生產(chǎn)方面更加靈活，而不是為了實(shí)現(xiàn)更積極的增長而花費(fèi)更多現(xiàn)金。
• 歐洲和亞洲的國內(nèi)需求都依賴于液化天然氣進(jìn)口，但對區(qū)域價(jià)格的影響不同。
但是與實(shí)際情況相比其研究的20個(gè)天氣情景（根據(jù)過去20年的數(shù)據(jù)）缺少大幅波動的情況。由于模型的假設(shè)不夠極端，無法推動產(chǎn)生G2M2®全球天然氣預(yù)測分析的現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格飆升、需求沖擊和供應(yīng)減少，以接近實(shí)際發(fā)生的冬季天氣條件。
2021 年 2 月，北美的情況尤其如此（請參閱下圖，請注意右上圖的縱坐標(biāo)軸的價(jià)格是左上圖的兩倍）。去年報(bào)告中運(yùn)用的情景、數(shù)據(jù)和模擬條件未能充分考慮北美主要產(chǎn)區(qū)電力和天然氣管網(wǎng)的過冬準(zhǔn)備不足以及由此對液化天然氣出口造成影響的未知因素。
圖表1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）價(jià)格和美國液化天然氣出口預(yù)測
圖表 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利樞紐價(jià)格和美國液化天然氣出口預(yù)測
該研究的2021-2022年展望顯示，2022年亨利港的年平均價(jià)格上升至5.50美元/MmBtu左右，而去年的報(bào)告為3.50美元/MmBtu。 此外，與去年的預(yù)測相反，今年美國液化天然氣出口預(yù)計(jì)運(yùn)行接近100%的產(chǎn)能。
一般認(rèn)為，隨著（美國）國內(nèi)天然氣價(jià)格的上漲，液化天然氣出口將減少，因?yàn)閲鴥?nèi)市場將產(chǎn)生更大的利潤潛力。 然而，情況并非如此，因?yàn)槿蛱烊粴夂鸵夯烊粴鈨r(jià)格飛漲，供應(yīng)短缺，同時(shí)歐洲冬季來臨之際，儲存水平低于正常水平，因此歐洲市場的利潤空間可能會更大。
全球天然氣和液化天然氣價(jià)格
由于全球供應(yīng)限制繼續(xù)影響天然氣和液化天然氣市場，基于使用G2M2®的各種天氣情景，該報(bào)告預(yù)測出美國液化天然氣出口的價(jià)格差大于5美元/MMBtu。
圖表3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的價(jià)格
歐洲天然氣市場 - TTF 價(jià)格驅(qū)動因素
歐洲存儲：
不論是在冬季或異常炎熱的夏季，歐洲的儲氣庫庫存一直相對來說較為穩(wěn)定。然而，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低值的歐洲西北部地下存儲庫存給TTF價(jià)格帶來了巨大的上行壓力。 在過去 5 年中，從 NWE 存儲的冬季提取的天然氣量從 2018-19 年溫和冬季的 210 TWh 大幅轉(zhuǎn)向 2017-18 年非常寒冷的冬季的 400 TWh。2020/2021年冬季接近正常天氣條件，但存儲水平下降了380 TWh。
圖表 4 - 歐洲存儲庫存水平
2020/2021年冬季，由于亞洲需求在異常寒冷的冬季增加，液化天然氣進(jìn)口供應(yīng)減少，導(dǎo)致液化天然氣進(jìn)口量高于正常水平。液化天然氣的發(fā)送量為20Bcm（220 TWh），低于前一年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 月初，歐洲存儲庫存為 160 TWh 或容量的 30%，為過去 5 年（2016-2020 年）的最低水平，明顯低于 64% 的五年平均水平。同時(shí)今年注氣延遲了將近一個(gè)月。直到5月才開始注氣，而從歷史上看，注氣是在4月份開始的。
圖表 5 – 歐洲西北部地下儲氣庫情況
研究團(tuán)隊(duì)使用的 G2M2 模型基于 19 種天氣情景，包括多種不同的需求預(yù)測。這些方案的結(jié)果表明，預(yù)計(jì)今年冬季（10月-3月）歐洲西北部大約230 TWh的天然氣將被取出。
在2021年-2022年的冬天，該模型預(yù)測存儲水平約為 135 TWh 或存儲容量的 25%。相比之下，5年的平均值為35%。預(yù)計(jì)明年歐洲西北地區(qū)存儲庫存水平將繼續(xù)低于5年平均水平，直到2023年底才能趕上5年平均水平。
圖表 6 - G2M2 歐洲存儲庫存水平
從俄羅斯進(jìn)口：
盡管歐洲大部分國家都在積極地進(jìn)行能源轉(zhuǎn)型，但其天然氣市場仍嚴(yán)重依賴天然氣和液化天然氣的進(jìn)口，已滿足國內(nèi)需求。進(jìn)入歐盟國家的天然氣主要通過俄羅斯、挪威和北非的管道以及來自世界各地的液化天然氣罐車輸送。
近幾個(gè)月來，俄羅斯對歐洲天然氣供應(yīng)的不確定性對TTF價(jià)格產(chǎn)生了重大影響。歐洲市場對天然氣供應(yīng)變化的任何跡象的反應(yīng)仍然非常強(qiáng)烈。在下圖中，當(dāng)出現(xiàn)新的有關(guān)北溪二號的事件和公告，例如政策變化和容量拍賣結(jié)果等，價(jià)格都會有所波動。
圖表 7 – 北溪二號相關(guān)事件和公告對價(jià)格的影響
歐洲天然氣生產(chǎn)：
歐洲天然氣產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)下降，進(jìn)一步加劇了TTF價(jià)格的上行壓力。自 2018 年 1 月以來，歐洲每日天然氣產(chǎn)量從大約 2.8億降至1.6億立方米。由于能源轉(zhuǎn)型的目標(biāo)已經(jīng)確定，沒有跡象表明歐盟國家將大力開發(fā)國內(nèi)的七天。為了穩(wěn)定價(jià)格，歐洲需要找到一種方法已保證更多的天然氣的穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)，而在這個(gè)不確定的時(shí)期，形勢仍然不算明朗。
圖表 8 - 歐洲天然氣生產(chǎn)
主要結(jié)論
使用 RBAC的G2M2®全球天然氣預(yù)測分析系統(tǒng)基于各種天氣情況下模擬不同場景，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些重要結(jié)論，在考慮未來冬季市場的基本時(shí)，需要加以評估。
• 與往常一樣，天氣是最大的未知數(shù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一。
• 鑒于目前全球天然氣市場的緊張狀況，北半球任何大型市場（美國、歐洲或亞洲）的冬季都比正常寒冷，這將導(dǎo)致主要樞紐價(jià)格進(jìn)一步走高，主要天然氣市場可能會在冬季面臨短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
• 如果今年冬天異常寒冷，需求量將大幅增加，區(qū)域內(nèi)的斷電可能是不可避免的。
此外，由于各國需要更長的時(shí)間來補(bǔ)充其地下儲氣的庫存，這意味著全球天然氣市場的緊張狀態(tài)將持續(xù)更長的時(shí)間。
• 中國、南美洲等國家的需求增長可能會加劇目前市場的緊張，迫使亞洲和歐洲客戶爭奪相同的液化天然氣氣源。
• 歐洲進(jìn)口俄羅斯的管道天然氣總量將繼續(xù)受到限制，影響因素仍在于北溪二線何時(shí)能正式投產(chǎn)。
• 關(guān)于北溪二線，由于其認(rèn)證流程等因素，預(yù)計(jì)啟動日期已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)一些延遲，這是管道正式投入使用和開始商業(yè)流之前的最后一步。除其他事項(xiàng)外，認(rèn)證過程受到美國制裁和波蘭反對，而且啟動手續(xù)耗時(shí)長，無法滿足在原定的2021年10月1日開始日期。從9月初管道運(yùn)營商向德國監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)提交申請開始，認(rèn)證過程預(yù)計(jì)需要6-8個(gè)月才能完成。在本次研究中的假設(shè)是北溪二線于2022年第一季度末開始正式投入商用。
• 另一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，一旦投入使用，北溪二號需要多長時(shí)間才能增加交貨量。迄今為止，俄羅斯尚未承諾通過新的預(yù)計(jì)路線向歐洲輸送多少天然氣。基于這種情況，歐洲進(jìn)口俄羅斯的管道天然氣總量仍將受到限制。
結(jié)論
冬天總是會以這樣或那樣的方式處理影響市場的不可預(yù)知的情況。 能源轉(zhuǎn)型期間需求持續(xù)增長和供應(yīng)緊張將給整個(gè)北半球的價(jià)格帶來上行壓力。 使用本研究中所做的市場模擬，可以快速分析各種潛在假設(shè)和情景展望，以確定一系列可信的結(jié)果，以便做出正確的決策，實(shí)現(xiàn)組織的目標(biāo)，包括能源過渡所要求的目標(biāo)。
RBAC公司創(chuàng)立于1987年，主要負(fù)責(zé)開發(fā)和維護(hù)是全球和區(qū)域天然氣和液化天然氣市場預(yù)測系統(tǒng)，其利用數(shù)學(xué)建模、統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、數(shù)學(xué)算法開發(fā)和數(shù)據(jù)庫設(shè)計(jì)方面等專業(yè)知識向能源行業(yè)公司以及涉及能源、交通和環(huán)境的政府機(jī)構(gòu)提供強(qiáng)大的分析工具。G2M2®全球天然氣預(yù)測分析系統(tǒng)™專為全球天然氣市場的融合開發(fā)方案而設(shè)計(jì)。它是一套完整的模型系統(tǒng)，用于預(yù)測全球天然氣市場的天然氣和液化天然氣生產(chǎn)、運(yùn)輸、儲存和消費(fèi)。欲了解更多信息，請?jiān)L問：https://rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: https://www.refinitiv.com/en
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